AFRO-NETS> Estimation or guestimation? (9)

[Norbert Forster <nforster@namibia.com.na>]

Estimation or guestimation? (9)
-------------------------------

Re: previous comments on this issue

I have been following this discussion on AFRO-NETS with some interest. 
It focuses on the interface between the use of information for purposes 
of meaningful planning for interventions on the one hand, and on the 
other hand, its use to influence opinion and perceptions.

This seems to me to be the main issue Ouedrago Koudaogo was addressing 
in her/his comments on Brian Pazwakavambwa's posting on the rise of 
AIDS to "fourth place among world killers", when s/he stated that "WHO 
and other UN agencies need to harmonise their data so that readers ... 
relying on data provided by the UN agencies get less confused".

In the following debate the points were made that WHO had to rely on 
whatever "information countries were willing to provide and then use 
their best judgement" (Howard Lyons); that "UN agencies and other do-
nors often report different statistics about the same country - for the 
same span of time" (Ned Wallace); that "the merits of the Global Burden 
of Disease Study was that internally consistent estimates of mortality 
were developed" (Julie Cliff); and that one needed to "ask how likely 
is it that these organisations (WHO, UNICEF and UNDP) will agree to co-
operate with each other?"(Lucinda Franklin).

While I welcome the scepticism in Lucinda Franklin's contribution, and 
the well intentioned statement by Alan Lopez that it is "absolutely 
right that WHO and other UN agencies need to harmonise their estimation 
and dissemination efforts", it would probably be good for all of us to 
remember that information is a commodity that is put to use for various 
purposes by various players in the arena of health sector development. 
(And if I speak of various players I refer to all stakeholders in the 
process, whose interests may naturally be in conflict from time to 
time.)

So let us not forget that despite encouraging moves towards "evidence-
based" health care and "scientific management", we still will always 
live in a real world, where any dish should be taken with a good pinch 
of salt.

Dr. Norbert Forster
Deputy Director: Planning
Ministry of Health and Social Services
Namibia
Private Bag 13198
Windhoek
Republic of Namibia
Tel: +264-61-203-2811
Fax: +264-61-227-607
mailto:nforster@namibia.com.na



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