AFRO-NETS> Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report - Wed, 26 Sep 2001

[Cecilia Snyder <csnyder@ccmc.org>]

Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report - Wed, 26 Sep 2001
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HIV/AIDS May Reduce South African's Gross National Product 5.7% by 
2015, Report Says

A new report released by the South African Bureau for Economic Re-
search said that the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa may reduce the 
nation's gross domestic product up to 5.7% by 2015, Dow Jones Inter-
national News reports. The BER report analyzed the impact of HIV/AIDS 
on the nation's population, labor force, economic productivity, gov-
ernment expenditures and businesses and said that South Africa's GDP 
will likely decrease 1.5% by 2010 and 5.7% by 2015 as a result of 
HIV/AIDS. By 2015, South Africa's total labor force will decrease by 
21% "compared with a no-AIDS scenario," including a 16.8% decline in 
highly skilled workers, a 19.3% drop in skilled workers and a 22.2% 
decrease in semi-skilled and unskilled workers, according to the re-
port. The report also said that production prices could rise by up to 
2.3% and prime interest rates could increase up to 2.9% per year be-
tween 2002 and 2015. In addition, the report "projected shifts" in 
consumer spending toward heath care products. The report said that 
households will likely "witness substantial shifts in spending, 
changes in the distribution of income and the activation of savings 
in order to protect living standards in the face of increased health-
related expenditure" (Dow Jones International News, 9/25).

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The Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report is published for kaisernetwork.org, 
a free service of The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, by National 
Journal Group Inc. c 2001 by National Journal Group Inc. and Kaiser 
Family Foundation. All rights reserved.

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