AFRO-NETS> UN lowers world population projection, AIDS is one of 2 major causes

[Claudio Schuftan <aviva@netnam.vn>]

UN lowers world population projection, AIDS is one of 2 major causes
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UN POPULATION DIVISION LOWERS WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR 2050 
BY 400 MILLIONS, DROP DUE TO DEATHS FROM AIDS, LOW BIRTHRATE

http://www.kaisernetwork.org/daily_reports/rep_index.cfm?DR_ID=16270

The United Nations Population Division on Wednesday lowered its esti-
mated world population projections for 2050 by 400 million, largely 
due to the effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and "lower than expected" 
birthrates, the AP/Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The "World Popula-
tion Prospects: The 2002 Revision" report attributes about half of 
the decrease to a rising number of deaths due to AIDS-related compli-
cations and the other half to the fact that three out of four coun-
tries in less-developed regions will have fertility rates below re-
placement levels by 2050 (Lederer, AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, 2/27). 
The world population is still expected to increase by 2.6 billion 
over the next 47 years, from 6.3 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050 
(United Nations release, 2/26). Eight countries -- India, Pakistan, 
Nigeria, the United States, China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and the De-
mocratic Republic of Congo -- will account for 50% of the world's 
population increase, the Financial Times reports (Wolf, Financial 
Times, 2/27). "However, the realization of these projections is con-
tingent on ensuring that couples have access to family planning and 
that efforts to arrest the current spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic 
are successful in reducing growth momentum," the report states (Xin-
hua News, 2/26).

FERTILITY

The "key to the change" was a "surprise" drop in birth rates of the 
most populous developing countries, Reuters/New York Times reports. 
Joseph Chamie, director of the U.N. Population Division, said that 
the most important factor in declining fertility rates is that "men 
and women want smaller families, and now they have the means to do 
so" (Reuters/New York Times, 2/27). The report says that fertility 
levels in most developing countries will fall below 2.1 children per 
woman, the "level needed to ensure long term replacement of the popu-
lation" (United Nations release, 2/26). Already, fertility rates in 
developing countries have fallen from six children per woman in 1950 
to three children today. The populations of 33 countries -- including 
Japan, Italy, Bulgaria, Russia and Ukraine -- are expected to be 
smaller in 2050 than they are today (Financial Times, 2/27). Accord-
ing to the report, if fertility in all countries were to remain at 
current levels, the world population would "more than double" to 12.8 
billion by 2050 (AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, 2/27).

HIV/AIDS IMPACT

HIV/AIDS will have a "serious and prolonged effect" on the popula-
tions of the most-affected countries, where the number of HIV/AIDS 
cases will still be "substantial" in 2050, although models predict a 
decline in HIV prevalence levels after 2010 (United Nations release, 
2/26). The number of AIDS-related deaths in the 53 worst-affected na-
tions is estimated to reach 278 million by 2050 (Agence France-
Presse, 2/26). Seven of the most affected countries -- Botswana, Le-
sotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe -- are 
located in Southern Africa, where HIV prevalence is greater than 20%, 
the Wall Street Journal reports. According to the estimates, the 
population of these countries in 12 years will be 19% lower than it 
would have been without AIDS. Chamie said that in some countries, in-
cluding India, China, Russia and Nigeria, "even a small difference 
[in HIV prevalence] has a big effect on the number of excess deaths," 
compared with previous estimates. He said, "It's a catastrophe. We 
have to bring down mortality in these countries" (Naik, Wall Street 
Journal, 2/27). Chamie added, "The long-term impact of the epidemic 
remains dire. HIV/AIDS is a disease of mass destruction and we do not 
see a vaccine coming soon" (BBC News, 2/26). 

--
Claudio Schuftan
mailto:aviva@netnam.vn

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