AFRO-NETS> Africa, some sobering numbers (6)

[Maurice King <M.H.King@leeds.ac.uk>]

Africa, some sobering numbers (6)
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A Reply to Claudio Schuftan

I am indeed neo-Malthusian.

Demography is presently very antimalthusian - publicly, hence the 
need to reinstate him.

I asked Jack Caldwell, the most eminent demographer of Africa how 
much of Africa is demographically trapped.

He replied (privately) that most of it is, except perhaps Ghana (and 
there are doubts about that)

Malthus was very busy in Rwanda, which the Belgians had long consid-
ered trapped, he is also very busy in Malawi.

I want you to answer a question:

Is it be possible for a community to outgrow the carrying capacity of 
its ecosystem, and its opportunities for migration, and the ability 
of its economy to provide sufficient exports?

Yes or No?

Terms of trade do indeed need improving - urgently. By themselves 
they are not enough. Rwanda gets $0.88 a kg for its green coffee. 
This earns it about $200,000. Even if it got ten times as much, which 
is its retail price in the North, $2 million a year would not build 
an industrial economy in the middle of Africa.

As for Africa's population in 2050 and 2150, these are UN figures -
starvation permitting.

2050 is not so far away, many of those now living can expect to see 
it - starvation permitting.

As for Africa's negative food balance, here is the graph.
[sorry, no attachments possible in AFRO-NETS - DN Mod.]

You will find Primary Mother Care and Population very useful! It is 
already selling well - profit free! Send me an e-mail.

Maurice King 
Honorary Research Fellow
The University of Leeds
5 Ashwood Villas 
Leeds LS6 2 EJ, UK
Phone and Fax +44-113-230-4441 
mailto:M.H.King@leeds.ac.uk
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