AFRO-NETS> South Africa: HIV/AIDS epidemic is projected to slow down

[Dieter Neuvians MD <neuvians@mweb.co.za>]

South Africa: HIV/AIDS epidemic is projected to slow down
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New projections paint more positive trends 
 
The HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa is projected to have peaked 
in 2002 with 4.69 million people living with HIV/AIDS, and new 
projections show that it is now beginning to level off. HIV-
incidence rates in the 15 ? 49 age group are projected to have 
decreased substantially from 4.2 per cent in 1997 to 1.7 per cent 
in 2003 and the projected annual number of deaths due to AIDS is 
expected to peak in 2008 at 487 320. This more positive scenario 
compared to earlier estimates of the way the HIV/AIDS epidemic 
will pan out until 2020, is based on a new model (called the HSRC 
model) projecting future epidemiological trends and estimates of 
the demographic impact of AIDS published in the latest edition of 
the African Journal of AIDS Research 2003 (AJAR), 2(1): 1-8. The 
authors, Dr Thomas Rehle, an independent consultant in interna-
tional health and disease control in Washington, USA, and Dr 
Olive Shisana of the HSRC, set out to project future trends in 
HIV/AIDS, and to estimate the demographic impact of AIDS. For 
this they used data from the Department of Health's national HIV-
prevalence surveys among pregnant women from 1990-2001 adjusted 
according to the first national, population-based HIV survey, the 
2002 Nelson Mandela/HSRC Study of HIV/AIDS:
http://www.hsrc.ac.za/research/npa/SAHA/news/news20021205.html
 
For more information see the Media brief in Adobe PDF format at:
http://www.hsrc.ac.za/media/2003/10/20031020.pdf

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