[afro-nets] New tool to predict epidemics of malaria

[Lauren Pincus <lauren@healthnet.org>]

New tool to predict epidemics of malaria
----------------------------------------
Liverpool University

08 Feb 2006

A new tool to predict epidemics of malaria up to five months in
advance has been developed by a scientist at the University of
Liverpool.

The model uses predictions of climate variability to indicate
the level of risk of an epidemic up to five months in advance of
the peak malaria season - the earliest point at which predic-
tions have ever been made. The model will assist doctors and
health care providers in preventing and controlling the disease.

Malaria is one of the world's deadliest diseases, killing more
than one million people every year, as well as infecting a fur-
ther 500 million worldwide. The mosquito-borne illness is en-
demic in several regions globally, but is most acute in Africa,
home to an estimated 90 per cent of all cases.

Dr Andy Morse from the Department of Geography and colleagues
from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting;
Columbia University, New York and the Ministry of Health in Bot-
swana, based their early-warning model on population vulnerabil-
ity, rainfall and health surveillance data and then used forth-
coming season forecasts for rainfall to predict unusual changes
in the seasonal pattern of disease in Botswana. The team based
their study on Botswana as its climate makes it susceptible to
malaria epidemics.

Dr Morse said: "The risk of an epidemic in tropical countries
such as Botswana increases dramatically shortly after a season
of good rainfall - when the heat and humidity allow mosquito
populations to thrive. By using a number of climate models, we
were able to compose weather predictions for such countries,
which could then be used to calculate the severity of an epi-
demic, months before its occurrence."

The team created a prediction system using seven, state-of-the-
art, global climate models which produce weather forecasts up to
six months in advance. The system allows researchers to assess
the probable effect of weather conditions on a malaria epidemic.

The team's research is published in the latest issue of Nature.

The University of Liverpool is one of the UK's leading research
institutions. It attracts collaborative and contract research
commissions from a wide range of national and international or-
ganisations valued at more than £90 million annually.

Joanna Robotham
University of Liverpool
mailto:joanna.robotham@liv.ac.uk
http://www.liv.ac.uk

--
Lauren Pincus
Information Officer
SATELLIFE
30 California Street, Watertown MA 02472, USA
Tel. +1-617-926-9400
Fax: +1-617-926-1212
mailto:lauren@healthnet.org