[afro-nets] New tool to predict epidemics of malaria (2)

[Peter Burgess <Profitinafrica@aol.com>]

New tool to predict epidemics of malaria (2)
--------------------------------------------

Dear Colleagues

One of the best predictors of malaria are location and wealth.
If the country (city) is located in the tropics there is likely
to be malaria, unless there is wealth in which case the mosqui-
toes and the malaria parasite will have been controlled.

Take Tampa, Florida... hot humid, low lying, on the Gulf
Coast... very little malaria, and any cases, if any at all, usu-
ally carried in by travellers. Tampa is populated by Americans
who have spent effectively over the years to ensure that mosqui-
toes and malaria have been controlled... and the end result is
NO MALARIA. The same can be said of many places where mosquitoes
and malaria were a problem in the past.

But then take Monrovia, Liberia, West Africa... hot humid, low
lying on the Atlantic Coast... with, according to a WHO finding,
one of the worst places in the world for malaria. Liberia has
been in an economic crisis for 25 years, and in a state of civil
war for much of that time. Monrovia became a refuge for many and
its population doubled. The government and the people have been
able to do nothing about mosquitoes and malaria... no money and
no organization... and the end result is MALARIA in abundance.

I am not in academia, nor I am employed (much) by the official
relief and development assistance (ORDA) community where the
study of problems dominates the agenda. I come from a different
world... for years I was a corporate accountant, with an exper-
tise in cost accounting, budgeting and planning... and, yes, it
was interesting to be able to predict, but as I recall, the cor-
porate world makes its money by predicting right AND doing some-
thing based on the predictions that are right.

The ORDA cycle seems to be predict... study... plan... ago-
nize... predict... study plan... agonize. At the end of this
process there is not much change in the incidence of malaria...
just the impact of the weather!

The cycle needed is predict... plan... implement... measure. And
then perhaps we can celebrate success. In this process leader-
ship has taken charge and resources get applied to what gets the
problem solved... mo matter what the weather.

The Monrovia Mosquito / Malaria Control Program has been de-
signed to address the endemic mosquito / malaria situation in
Monrovia using all the interventions that are currently consid-
ered effective and safe. The program uses etymology and cost
analysis... and malaria parasite analysis (malariology) and cost
analysis... and various insecticide and larvacide delivery sys-
tems and cost analysis to have the biggest impact at least cost.
The program attempts to use the best practice from lessons
learned in other work and deals with the unusual geography of
Monrovia, and the many physical problems of insecticide deliv-
ery...

The likely success of this program from a technical standpoint
is near 100%... but the critical predictor is whether funding
will be available or not. The world is not short of money, it is
the allocation of money that is the problem...

Liberians would like to see malaria controlled. Fund flows that
actual get to do anti-mosquito / anti-malaria work on the ground
would be very valuable... but how to predict when this might
happen!

Peter Burgess
Tr-Ac-Net in New York
Tel.: +1-212-772 6918
mailto:peterbnyc@gmail.com
The Transparency and Accountability Network
http://tr-ac-net.blogspot.com
http://www.tr-ac-net.org