[afro-nets] Is elimination of malaria in Africa by 2010 unrealistic? (2)

["Peter Burgess" <profitinafrica@gmail.com>]

Is elimination of malaria in Africa by 2010 unrealistic? (2)
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Dear Colleagues

I was interested to see the report from Omololu Falobi about the AU's 
Special Summit in Abuja and the discussion about malaria.

If the problem was in the middle of North America or the middle of
Europe I think we would all agree that a problem of malaria would be
handled way before 2010. With adequate funding, the problem of malaria
can be resolved ... and quite quickly.

I have done a considerable amount of work to try to understand how
much it would cost to use the very best practices in science,
technology, operations and management to address the malaria crisis in
all of Africa ... and it is getting very interesting. The model has a
long way to go before it will be in a presentable form, but it is far
enough along to show me that there is a huge difference in the cost
effectiveness of a well managed integrated mosquito and malaria
control (IMMC) program and one that has the initiatives going on in an
uncoordinated manner.

What is clear is that medical interventions without some serious
reduction in the mosquito vector and reinfection is a formula for
disaster ... both in terms of cost and in terms of build-up of
resistance.

It is also clear that getting the scale correct can make a big
difference in cost, and in the achievement and maintenance of malaria
free areas.

Unfortunately very little of the writing about malaria includes much
about cost and results ... I am slowly building enough knowledge about
these matters for the model to start to be useful ... but because of
the tremendous importance of the interactions between the various
variable, and the cost of the various interventions, I have not yet
been able to get to a sensible but relatively simple optimization.

What is clear is that a rather modest investment (by capital market
standards) could go a long way towards the 2010 goal discussed in 
Abuja.

With best regards

Peter Burgess
mailto:peterbnyc@gmail.com
http://www.Tr-Ac-Net.org