[afro-nets] Is elimination of malaria in Africa by 2010 unrealistic? (15)

["Peter Burgess" <profitinafrica@gmail.com>]

Is elimination of malaria in Africa by 2010 unrealistic? (15)
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Dear Colleagues

The Partec microscope is interesting ... but what about the economics. The price of this piece of equipment is considerably more than $1,000 each (at current EU/$ exchange rates) and the supplies and accessories needed sound like they are going to be rather costly as well. I don't see the public health budgets being able to handle these sorts of cost other than in a very limited way.

I have seen some dialog about the failure to diagnose malaria correctly ... and I am sympathetic to that issue.

But I think we have to rethink the malaria issue in terms of triage ... what can be done now and with the resources that we can reasonably expect to be available.

I am trying to work through an economic model that integrates the various possible interventions in a comrepehsive coherent way, including the costs and the results dimensions. One of the things that is becoming apparent as the model development progresses is the importance of speed in getting cost effective success ... and conversely the importance of slowless in getting to the disastrous existing state of affairs.

I do not have all the information to do a really thorough analysis, but it would appear that almost all the malaria interventions I Africa are underfunded with respect to rapid impact, even though they can disburse substantial funds over a long period ... and in the end ... to little effect.

My understanding of the science suggests that the mosquito and the the malaria parasite dynamic is very fast paced ... and that progress one day is already lost in just a few days. And of course, this slowless also feeds into the terrible problem of resistance that rapidly evolves when there is a constant cycle of re-infection ... and a constant rebuilding of the mosquito and the malaria parasite populations.

At some point, I would very much like some of the experts in the field to review the work I am doing ... it is in an Excel spreadsheet file, and pretty large. Please let me know if you are interested. 

Sincerely

Peter Burgess
Tr-Ac-Net Inc.
mailto:profitinafrica@gmail.com